Helping the Pirates Reach .500 and Beyond

The Pirates as you all know have been terrible for a long time, 19 years to be specific. This season the baseball world thought this was going to change. The Pirates were good at the beginning of this season, not just .500 good but playoff contending good. They were leading the division for a while and even were buyers at the deadline. And of course being the Pirates their success didn’t last as they finished 72-90. This post I am going suggest changes that the Pirates could make in order to be contenders in 2012.

In order for the Pirates to be contenders in 2012 they need to get roughly 90 wins. So to reach that total the Pirates need to get 18 more wins. To generate those 18 extra wins they need to get player who will provide another 18 WAR. The Pirates are going to need to make many changes to improve.

The first area to improve upon is catcher. Here’s a breakdown of the catchers used in 2011.

Player	Games	Slash Stats	WAR (fan graphs)
Ryan Doumit	77	.303/.353/.477	1.8
Chris Snyder	34	.271/.376/.396	0.7
Michael McKenry	58	.222/.276/.322	0.1

So the Pirates catchers generated 2.6 WAR last season. I propose that the Pirates trade for Nick Hundley and sign Jose Molina. Here’s a look at what those two did last season.

Hundley	82	.288/.347/.477	3.3
Molina	55	.281/.342/.415	1.3

 Hundley and Molina combined to be worth 4.6 WAR last season. So already the Pirates have improved by 2 wins.  (Record now 74-88)

The Pirates do not have a starting first baseman going into 2012. Last season, Lyle Overbay began the year as their first baseman, but was replaced when Derek Lee was acquired at the deadline; Garrett Jones also played a large role at 1B. Here’s a look at their production in 2011.

Player	Innings	Slash Stats	WAR
Overbay	828	.227/.300/.349	-0.8
Jones	260	.243/.321/.433	0.9
Lee	238	.337/.398/.584	0.9

The Pirates first baseman generated 1 WAR last season.

The best way to improve on that would be go out and sign Price Fielder; however that’s unlikely, Carlos Pena however would be cheaper and would still represent an upgrade.

Pena

1258.1

.225/.357/.462

2.6

With Pena the Pirates would generate 1.6 additional wins. (Record now 75.6-86.4)

The Pirates have a solid middle infield tandem in Neil Walker (3.0 WAR), and Ronny Cedeno (1.4 WAR). Walker is a good player, he has a decent bat (.273/.334/.408 in 2011) and a below average glove (-3.2 UZR in 2011). Cedeno has no bat (career line of .249/.286/.353) but his glove at short (5.9 UZR in 2011) is why I want him in the lineup. I believe that both these players at least will be worth what they were last season.

Third base is a position that really hurt the Pirates last season. The Pirates used three players for a significant time at 3B last season.

Pedro Alvarez	549	.191/.272/.288	-0.8
Brandon Wood	377	.220/.277/.347	0.3
Josh Harrison	363	.272/.281/.374	0.9

The Pirates third basemen combined to be worth only 0.4 wins.  This were the Pirates should make a splash and go after the big name free agent. I feel they should make run at Aramis Ramirez.

Ramirez

1241.1

.306/.361/.510

3.6

 With Ramirez the Pirates would get an extra 3.2 wins. (Record now 78.8-83.2)

Much like third base right field was another area of concern for the Pirates.  The Pirates again had three players play significant time in right field in 2011.

Garret Jones	659	.243/.321/.433	0.9
Matt Diaz	276	.259/.303/.324	-0.1
Xavier Paul	273	.254/.293/.349	-0.1

Those three men were worth 0.7 wins last season. A player who would improve on that would be Michael Cuddyer

Cuddyer

639.1

.284/.346/.458

3.1

With the addition of Cuddyer the Pirates would gain another 2.4 wins. (Record 81.2-80.8 at the .500 mark)

The Pirates are set in the center field with Andrew McCutchen (5.7 WAR) and Jose Tabata (1.0 WAR). McCutchen is one of the best young center fielders in the game and his WAR reflects that. His WAR has increased every year he has been in the bigs so next season I will expect that to continue. He has average increase 1.1 WAR a season. Let’s assume he will do that (which really isn’t asking a lot as he is only 26). So that will increase the Pirates record to 82.3-79.7. Tabata only played in 91 games last season and he is only 23. So an increase in WAR is realistic to expect. Tabata had 2.1 WAR in 2010 so I feel that if he stays healthy and plays in something like 140 games he should get around 2.8 WAR. That will improve the Pirates record to 84.1-77.9.

By only making 4 changes I have improved the Pirates by 12.1 wins. Now to reach that 90 win plateau the pitchers need to improve by just 5.9 wins.  

I will begin with the bullpen

Pitcher	Innings	ERA	WAR
Tony Watson (L)	41	3.95	-0.4
Joe Beimel (L)	25.1	5.33	-0.7
Daniel McCutchen (R)	84.2	3.72	-0.3

Those three combined to be 1.1 win below a replacement level player last season. Even the Pirates get players who are simply replacement level then they will improve by 1 win. Here are three pitchers who are free agents and would represent an upgrade.

Todd Coffey (R)	59.2	3.62	0.5
George Sherril  (L)	36	3.00	0.5
Javier Lopez (L)	53	2.72	0.7

 These three pitchers combined for a 1.7 WAR. These pitchers because they are replacing players who combined to have -1.1 WAR, they give Pittsburgh another 2.8 wins. (Record 86.9-75.1)

The last area that needs improving is the starting rotation. Since we are at 86.9 wins we only need to improve the rotation by 3.1 WAR.

Here’s a look at the two pitchers that need to be replaced.

Ross Ohlendorf	38.2	4.82	-0.6
Kevin Correia	153.0	8.15	0.0

These two pitchers as you can see combined to have -0.6 WAR last season. Here are two pitchers who will provide similar innings but will be provide more WAR.

Dontrelle Willis	75.2	5.00	0.8
Bruce Chen	155.0	3.77	1.7

These two pitchers combined to be worth 2.5 wins last season.  These two pitchers will provide the Pirates with an additional 3.1 wins, exactly the amount that was needed.

Those 3.1 wins push the Pirates record to 90-70, which should be enough to make the playoffs in 2012. I made 10 changes to the Pirates roster. Yes that is a lot and the price would be high, but the extra revenue the Pirates made from being in contention would be enough to offset the cost of the players.

Comments are appreciated, let know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. Thanks. You can follow me on twitter @PaulBerthelot and you can like Ol Ball Game on twitter just search Ol Ball Game.

How the Marlins can Contend in 2012

There has been a lot of talk about the Marlins and how they need to have a great season this year. They are moving to Miami and finally have a new stadium. The Marlins went 72-90 finishing last in the NL East. Their goal this season is basically to be this year’s Diamondbacks.  So I was looking at their roster and was wondering what needed to be done to make this turn around possible. I discovered that the Marlins starting pitchers are predominantly a ground ball inducing staff.  Look at the potential first 4 starters next season (in order of highest groundball percentage).

Pitcher	Groundball Percentage	ERA	SIERA
Chris Volstad	52.3%	4.89	3.69
Ricky Nolasco	45.1%	4.67	3.64
Anibal Sanchez	44.3%	3.67	3.14
Josh Johnson*	45.7%	2.30	3.10

 2010 Stats

As you can see each pitcher gets a ground ball over 40% of the time. Looking at those numbers it’s pretty easy to see that their starters should be having success based off the low SIERA’s but for some reason their ERA’s anywhere close to that. I looked into this and saw that their infield defence was rather unspectacular.

Player/Position	2011 UZR	UZR/150
Gaby Sanchez/1B	5.0	7.3
Omar Infante/2B	8.2	4.4
Greg Dobbs/3B	-4.8	-10.2
Hanley Ramirez/SS	-4.8	-10.0

Clearly they need help on the left side of their infield. Ramirez and Dobbs both cost the Marlins 4.8 runs last season. Neither of the two played a full season but if they had they would have combined to cost the Marlins 20.2 runs. I feel that for the Marlins to compete next season they need an upgrade defensively at third and shortstop.

Looking at the free agent market getting an upgrade at these positions shouldn’t be very difficult. I think the Marlins should sign Clint Barmes to play SS, and Kevin Kouzmanoff to play 3B.

Barmes with the Astros last season, posted a 7.9 UZR in his first 1000+ innings at SS since 2006. In 2006 then with the Rockies he had a 7.4 UZR and a 9.4 UZR/150 so that shows that last season was not a fluke year. Kouzmanoff posted a 0.6 UZR last season and a 1.4 UZR/150. Those numbers are very low due to the fact that this was his first season that he didn’t play 1000+ innings at third base. Looking back at previous seasons the numbers show he has been an excellent defender. In 2010 he posted 16.1 UZR and 17.5 UZR/150, and in 2009 his UZR was 7.5 and had a UZR/150 of 9.9. If he gets 1000 innings this season I expect him to have another excellent season defensively.

Now only Ramirez is under contract, Dobbs is a free agent. So Ramirez needs to find a new position. He is the Marlins best offensive player. I think he should switch to center field and replace Chris Coghlan. The defence of the outfields is not crucial because of the groundball pitchers. So Coghlan should go because he is the weakest hitter of the three Marlins outfielders.

 Coglan hit .230/.296/.368 last season. Kouzmanoff had a very similar batting line .235/.284/.372. The Marlins are not going to lose much if any with having Kouzmanoff. Dobbs hit .275/.311/.389 last season. Barmes has a very similar line, .244/.312/.386.

With these changes the Marlins will have basically the same offensive output while greatly increasing their defence. I feel that if that if these players are acquired and can play like they have in the past then the Marlins will be a good team that should contend for the playoffs.

Comments are appreciated let me know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. Also you can follow me on twitter @PaulBerthelot You can like Ol Ball Game on facebook too

Defence Wins Championships

Isn’t that the old saying that if you have a strong defence you will win. Now yes that’s term used widely in football but I feel that it can be applied to baseball as well. There has been a strong emphasis on defence in the last few years. Team have begun to realize the value having a strong defence. Defence really started to take off when the Rays had their magical run to the World Series in 2008. That’s when I really started to take a serious interest in defence. I started looking into defensive stats like ultimate zone rating (UZR).

I was looking through UZR leaders on fan graphs and I noticed that all three of the Diamondbacks outfielders, Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Gerardo Parra all rank in the top 3 of UZR at their outfield positions. Arizona has the best outfield defence in the league this season because of this. They have a cumulative UZR/150 of 51.2. This means that over 150 games Arizona’s outfield defence is saving about 51 runs. This is a huge improvement over last season when with the same 3 outfielders they posted a combined UZR/150 of 42.9. That improvement of 8.3 is a crucial reason that Arizona is in first place. That difference may not seem like a lot but consider this; an outfield defence would be the most beneficiary for pitchers who give up a lot of fly balls. An outfield may be excellent but if all the pitchers give up groundballs then that great outfield defence goes to waste.

This is why Arizona is in first place in the NL West. In 2010 Diamondback pitchers wasted their great outfield defence by giving up groundballs that went to infielders who were inferior defenders to the outfielders. The pitchers who are having the most success with the D’backs this season (ERA under 3.5) are the ones who are giving up the more fly balls than ground balls (min 50 IP).

Pitcher	ERA	GB%	FB%
J.J. Putz	2.84	41.8	44.3
David Hernandez	2.82	30.4	45.9
Micah Owings	2.65	36.8	45.8
Ian Kennedy	3.22	39.4	39.2
Josh Collmenter	3.47	33.1	47.9

Kevin Towers the GM has gotten tons of credit for rebuilding the D’backs bullpen. The 2010 D’backs had the majors’ worst bullpen ERA at 5.74 and this season it’s down by almost 2 runs to 3.76. That’s why many experts say they’re having success this year. That is true but the one thing that the experts fail to explain is why these new relievers are having success. That chart right there is the reason.  Of the 5 guys listed above 3 were brought in by Towers to fix the bullpen, Putz and Owings were acquired via free agency Hernandez was acquired in a trade with the Orioles. Collmenter their fourth starter is a rookie who is getting his first opportunity in the majors and their ace Kennedy was already here when Towers took over the team.  

Is this success sustainable? I say yes because defence doesn’t slump. There is no scientific way to prove this but you don’t hear announcers on TV saying things like “he’s in a slump defensively right now.” Some factors like age and declining speed can lead to defence declining, but Towers doesn’t need to worry about that for a long time. Upton (23), Young (27) and Parra (24) are all under 30 and are not close to losing speed and having diminished range. All Towers needs to do is add more fly ball pitchers and Arizona with these 3 gifted defensive outfielders will not only be fighting for championships this year but in future years as well. 

Comments are appreciated let me know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. Thanks

Signing Day

This is a follow up post to my draft day post. With today being the signing deadline for drafted players (the deadline is midnight eastern), I figured the players that I discussed I should look at, and see if they signed and what they signed for.

Top 6 picks                                                                                                    

In my previous entry I stated how crazy the first 6 picks were with players falling and teams selecting guys nobody thought they would (Mariners). I wanted to see how this worked out for each team and if they were all able to sign the players they picked despite most with high contract demands.

Gerrit Cole-Pirates- Signed for 8mil, great great deal for Pirates, got an excellent talent who has touched triple digits and didn’t have to break Strasburg’s deal to get it done. Cole was rumoured to be asking for 15mil.  

Danny Hultzen-Mariners- Signed for 8.5mil over 5yrs, 6.35 signing bonus, max value of the deal could be 10.6mil. Good job by the Mariners to get their guy, they passed on players like Rendon who people thought might go here but they wanted Hultzen and got him.

Trevor Bauer- Diamondbacks- Signed a Major League deal worth $7million, the only player of the top 6 to sign before deadline day.  He signed on July 25. I really like when players sign before the deadline. It’s really in both the teams and the players benefit to sign early. When a player signs early he is able to start playing right away, where as players who signs right at the deadline won’t be able to play this season. Players who do sign early have the extra season of professional ball under their belt. Bauer has already reached AA and there are rumours he may get a call to the MLB. He is getting valuable experience that the other top picks aren’t getting. I applaud him and the D’backs for getting s deal done early.

Dylan Bundy-Orioles Signed for 6.225, the Orioles got they guy they wanted and got a solid deal not quite as much as Cole or Bauer but right up there.

Bubba Starling-Royals Signed for 7.5mil, Royals had to get this kid signed no matter what it took, they passed on local product Albert Pujols, they couldn’t let Kansas guy Starling get away from them. He is the second 18yr old to sign for at least 7.5 mil, the first one being Bryce Harper last season.              

Anthony Rendon-Nationals Signed for 7.2mill, the Nationals got the best college hitter on a good deal. He is more polished than Starling who got more money but Rendon coming out of college had less leverage.

Blue Jays Picks

The Jays had the second most picks with 5 in the first round and the supplemental round.

21-Tyler Beede- Did not sign, he now has to play college ball for 3yrs before he is draft eligible again, could be big changes to the CBA by then, should have taken the Jays offer (rumoured to be 2 million) he should have taken the money because he may not get that much in 3 yrs.

35-Jacob Anderson- Signed for $990K Good sign by the Jays they really like his bat to take him at 35

46-Joe Musgrove- Signed for $500K the player the exact same age as me got a good pay day. Wish I could say the same

53-Dwight Smith Jr- Signed for $800K solid signing got a pretty good player for cheap

57-Kevin Comer- Signed for 1.65mil was in the same situation as Beede but he didn’t follow Beede to Vanderbilt,  good sign by the Jays who for a while looked they were going to miss on Beede and Comer.

 74-Daniel Norris- Signed for 2mill, great deal for the Jays, Norris was considered the top HS lefty in the draft, was rumoured to be seeking 4mil good for Jays to get him for 2mil.

Other Notable Players/Signings

37-Zach Cone Signed for $873K, scouts laughed when he was selected but he got a good amount of money. Rangers must like him a lot.

39-Larry Greene Signed for 1million, as of 10:30 he has the highest bonus of any of the supplemental picks. You knew he was going to sign, he showed up at the draft, was the only one to do that. Hopefully he becomes a big leaguer and may inspire more players to come to draft day.  

Josh Bell signed for 5mil by the Pirates, was considered the top HS hitter in the draft, was a tough sign which is why he fell to the second round, but good job for the Pirates who had an excellent draft getting Cole and Bell.

Clay Holmes a HS right-hander selected in the 9th round by the Pirates was given the highest bonus ever for a player selected in the 9th round. He signed for 1.2million. He has a big fastball his slider is decent but it’s not consistent. He was committed to Auburn.

Shawon Duston Jr 11 round pick by Cubs signed for 1.275million. He is a HS OF, is an athlete with great speed. Is the son of former MLB player Shawon Duston (surprise there).  

Most of these later round picks, who sign for millions, are guys who are immensely talented but had leverage in negotiations and teams shied away from them. Many of them are first round talents.

My Thoughts on the Signing Deadline

I stated this above but I felt like its necessary to say again, the Pirates had one great draft. Getting the top college pitcher in Cole and the top HS hitter in Bell was excellent for the Pirates. If those two develop like they are expected to, they will be key pieces when the Pirates are contending.

The Mariners are building something special. They already have King Felix and rookie Michael Pineda, now with the signing of Hultzen they have a lefty to go in between them. They are following the path of the Giants developing home-grown front of the rotation starters. All the Mariners need is for Hultzen to develop into another ace and they need Dustin Ackley to carry the offence the way Buster Posey did last season for the Giants.

Now just a couple of thought on the Jays draft for Alex Anthopolous, links from twitter (via @wilnerness590).

AA was pleased with the overall signings. Had a lot of tough signs and managed to sign most of them. They considered taking Norris with the 21st pick. He is an absolute first round talent and his bonus reflects that. AA said that they could have signed Beede and Norris but at their (jays) value. When you make aggressive picks players are going to go unsigned.

Comments are appreciated let me know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. Thanks