Taking Advantage of the Rule 5 Draft

Are you a struggling team who doesn’t seem to have an all-star on the roster, are you a potential contender looking to add that last bullpen piece or role player but don’t want to spend big money on the 25^th man on you roster? If that sounds like your team then try the Rule 5 Draft.

The Rule 5 Draft is one of my favourite times in the baseball offseason. It’s a chance for teams to select players to play for their MLB teams in the upcoming season.

 It gives teams the opportunity to select a player for their MLB team. Most rule 5 guys are role players, usually pinch runners or back up defenders. Pitchers tend to be hard throwers who usually end up being the last man in the pen or a lefty specialist. These players may not be stars but it is a great opportunity for the player and the team. As a player he gets the chance to play in the big leagues. Now yes most may never see the majors but at least they are given the opportunity to attend big league spring training and have the opportunity to make the team something they may not have without the rule 5 draft. The team has the potential and yes it’s a small chance but they have the chance to get a star player. Yes it’s highly unlikely that all stars are acquired via the rule 5 draft but for rebuilding teams like the Astros or Cubs it’s a worthwhile gamble. There have been 26 players who have made the all-star team who were once rule 5 pick, most notably Roberto Clemente, George Bell, Josh Hamilton, Johan Santana, and Joakim Soria.   

It only cost $50,000 to select a player. For teams trying to rebuild provided that the rule 5 player won’t take another players spot is a worthwhile risk. The worst that can happen is that you’re out $25,000. Its like the lottery you’re not likely to win but it’s worth a shot.

I believe that the Rule 5 draft is underrated in today’s game and could be a tool if used effectively by GMs. Most teams don’t even select a player in the major league portion of the draft. Only 12 teams made a selection this year. I think that if teams did more scouting in preparation for this draft there would be many more diamonds in the rough found. If scouts focused on this draft as intently as they did the first year player draft I believe that many great players would come out of the Rule 5 draft. There have to be players in the minors who if given the opportunity would have success in the majors. Players with mechanical flaws in their batting stance, flaws in their pitching mechanics, that could be fixed with the help of MLB coaches. Scouts in my opinion need to be looking for players like this. If you could find a Roberto Clemente for $50,000, why not do everything you can to make that happen, especially for teams with little money. If you could get an all-star for $50,000 that would be huge for the team.

 If I was a GM I would defiantly put resources into the Rule 5 draft and try to use it my advantage. You just never know if a player will figure it out when in Spring Training and you end up with that elite player you were looking for. If not hopefully you were able to get that bullpen arm or bench player you were looking for.       

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Improving the Indians

The Indians have done what I would love to do if given the opportunity to be a general manager. They have themselves a starting pitching staff of ground ballers. Their projected starting pitchers are as follows (in no particular order)

Pitcher	Ground Ball % (2011)
Josh Tomlin	38.2%
Justin Masterson	55.1%
Fausto Carmona	54.8%
Ubaldo Jimenez	47.5%
Derek Lowe	59.0%

In order for these pitchers to have success (with the exception of Tomlin) is to have the defence turn those groundballs into outs. The Indians as they currently stand are not in a good position to field groundballs.

Player (Position)	UZR (2011)
Matt LaPorta (1B)	-5.9
Jason Kipnis (2B)	-5.6
Asdrubal Cabrera	-11.8
Jack Hannahan	8.7

Only Hannahan is a good defender. I am going to give Kipnis the benefit of the doubt as he is a converted outfielder who should improve defensively as he plays more 2B. Signing Casey Kotchman (1.6 UZR in 2011, and widely considered an elite defender) would solve the first base issue. That just leaves short stop as the main hole in the Indians infield. I propose a blockbuster trade that would shake up the AL Central.

TRADE ASDRUBAL CABRERA TO THE CHICAGO WHITE SOX FOR ALEXI RAMIREZ

Why the Indians would do this.

Ramirez had an 11.9 UZR in 2011, which lead all shortstops. He has been an elite defender for the last few seasons. Ramirez would provide the Indians the short stop they need. The offence that they would lose with Ramirez will be made up for with his glove.  

Why the White Sox would do this.

Ramirez hit just .269/.328/.399 last season and is a career .279/.323/.421. Cabrera hit .273/.332/.460 last season and is a career .281/.343/.414. The benefit for the White Sox in this trade is the additional offence they gain with Cabrera over Ramirez. Cabrera had more HR, RBI, runs, SB, doubles, and the same amount of walks in 2011. Put Cabrera in US Cellular field and he will be even better than he was with the Indians. The defence that the White Sox would lose with Cabrera would be made up for with his bat.

This blockbuster trade along with the signing of Casey Kotchman would give the Indians a much better chance to overtake the Tigers in AL Central.

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Trade and Free Agent Targets for the Padres

Petco Park home of the San Diego Padres is one of the toughest places to hit in all of the MLB. Pitchers love pitching there because of all the space. The Padres have two very good defensive outfielders in CF Cameron Maybin (9.5 UZR in 2011) and RF Will Venable (4.4 UZR in 2011). In order to make the following pitchers even more of a success in San Diego, the Padres need to get a left fielder that can also play excellent defence. This is fairly easy to do they just need to reunite with Tony Gwinn Jr (8.2 UZR in 2011). He along with Maybin and Venable will form one of the top if not the top defensive outfield in the MLB. This scenario would be heaven for fly ball pitchers. With that here are some starting pitching targets for the Padres. (Stats from 2011)

Free Agent Targets

Pitcher	ERA	Fly Ball %	HR/FB	HR/9
Bruce Chen	3.77	45.4%	8.1%	1.05
Javier Vazquez	3.69	46.1%	8.0%	0.98

Trade Targets

Colby Lewis (TEX)	4.40	49%	11.9%	1.57
Scott Baker (MIN)	3.14	44.7%	8.7%	1.00
Guillermo Moscoso (OAK)	3.38	55.5%	6.2%	0.98

Gambles

Scott Kazmir (2010)	5.94	43.8%	11.6%	1.50
Rich Harden	5.12	46.4%	15.6%	1.85

These starters would all have great success in Petco Park. Each of them gives up fly balls more than 40% of the time. Chen and Vazquez both already are successful pitchers and adding them to San Diego would make them even more effective.

 For a guy like Lewis his ERA is high due to him pitching in the bandbox in Texas. If San Diego was able to acquire him his ERA would lower, his HR/9 would drop he would have much more success with the Padres. Baker and Moscoso both play in pitchers parks in Minnesota and Oakland, but the added effect of the defence San Diego could provide would make their number even smaller.

The gambles on Kazmir and Harden would be very high risk, very high reward. If Kazmir was able to return to the ace he was in Tampa, the Padres would love that. The risk is that he flops and costs the Padres games early in the year. He is a good gamble to take in my opinion. Harden has the stuff to be an ace. The issue with him throughout his career is injuries. If he can stay healthy for at least half a season, then the Padres could trade him at the deadline for a prospect.   

Overall these fly ball pitchers would all have great success in San Diego. The only risk would be the money required to sign the players and the players given up in trades. In my opinion if I was a GM I would take a look at these guys and see if I could bring them into the organization. If they have success great, the Padres could be contenting with them. If they’re not contending, but success is happing for the pitchers, than deal them at the deadline for some younger talent. The opportunity cost of getting these players would be worth it for the Padres. The Padres don’t plan on contending this season so why not gamble on some players and see if you can?

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Does CJ Wilson Deserve $82.5M???

What do those two men above have in common, other than being struggling right handed pitchers in the AL East, is that they each signed contracts for 5 years $82.5milllion. I have been hearing rumours that another pitcher CJ Wilson is looking to join them in the $82.5 million club. This post here will analyze how Wilson stacks up to these pitchers, comparing careers before the contract and the walk year of the contract.

We will begin by looking at the players career before signing their big deal and see how Wilson stacks up.

Career before big deal was signed (Standard Stats)

Pitcher (Years, Seasons)	Won-Loss Record	ERA	Games/ Starts	Innings(IP)	Strikeout(SO)	Walks   (BB)
Wilson(2005-2011, 7)	43-35	3.60	325/73	708.0	637	295
Lackey (2002-2009, 8)	102-71	3.81	234/233	1501.0	1201	441
Burnett (1999-2008, 10)	87-76	3.81	215/211	1376.1	1278	568

Obviously Wilson has fewer counting stats (Games, Starts, IP) because he has only been a starter for the last two seasons.  That should help Wilson as his arm will be less taxed than the other two. Wilson will be the same age as Lackey was when he signed his deal (30, Burnett was 31), so age has no impact. I feel that since Wilson has pitched less that, which will help him to get $82.5M.

To put them on a more level playing field so we can make a better analysis of the numbers. Let’s look at the last two seasons before each pitcher signed their deals.

Pitcher	Starts/IP	ERA	WHIP	SO/9	BB/9	ERA+
Wilson (2010-2011)	67/427.1	3.14	1.215	7.9	3.5	142
Lackey  (2008-2009)	51/339.2	3.79	1.251	7.1	2.3	117
Burnett (2007-2008)	59/387.0	3.93	1.267	9.5	3.5	110

Looking at those numbers it’s easy to see that Wilson is the best of those three pitchers. He had more starts, best ERA, best WHIP, and best ERA+. His strikeouts/per 9 are just a tad better than Lackey and his walks/per 9 are high but the same as Burnett’s.  Looking at those numbers Wilson most definitely deserves $82.5M if not more.

There is one more set of numbers I want to look at, and that is each pitchers walk years. I want to look at walk years because of a personality trait called recency effect. Recency effect causes people to value others based off their most recent occurrence. So GM’s may have valued Burnett, Lackey and maybe Wilson based off their most recent season prior to free agency. 

Pitcher	Starts/IP	ERA	WHIP	SO/9	BB/9	ERA+
Wilson (2011)	34/223.1	2.94	1.187	8.1	3.0	152
Lackey  (2009)	27/176.1	3.83	1.270	7.1	2.4	115
Burnett (2008)	34/221.1	4.07	1.342	9.4	3.5	104

Clearly by those numbers Wilson is head and shoulders above Lackey and Burnett. The best ERA of the 3 by about a full run, the lowest WHIP, tied with Burnett for most starts (they both lead the lead in their respective seasons). His ERA+ destroys Lackey’s and Burnett’s. Looking at those numbers its fairly easy to see that Wilson definitely deserves at least $82.5M if not more.

Overall looking at the numbers, Wilson is far better than Lackey or Burnett. He has pitched the least amount because of his seasons as a reliever, but that definitely has helped to keep his arm fresh which should hopefully keep him off of the DL. To conclude, I feel that CJ Wilson when compared to AJ Burnett and John Lackey deserves at least the $82.5M that they got. I believe that Wilson should get even more than that. My prediction is that Wilson will get a 5 year $95million contract with an option for $20M.

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Helping the Pirates Reach .500 and Beyond

The Pirates as you all know have been terrible for a long time, 19 years to be specific. This season the baseball world thought this was going to change. The Pirates were good at the beginning of this season, not just .500 good but playoff contending good. They were leading the division for a while and even were buyers at the deadline. And of course being the Pirates their success didn’t last as they finished 72-90. This post I am going suggest changes that the Pirates could make in order to be contenders in 2012.

In order for the Pirates to be contenders in 2012 they need to get roughly 90 wins. So to reach that total the Pirates need to get 18 more wins. To generate those 18 extra wins they need to get player who will provide another 18 WAR. The Pirates are going to need to make many changes to improve.

The first area to improve upon is catcher. Here’s a breakdown of the catchers used in 2011.

Player	Games	Slash Stats	WAR (fan graphs)
Ryan Doumit	77	.303/.353/.477	1.8
Chris Snyder	34	.271/.376/.396	0.7
Michael McKenry	58	.222/.276/.322	0.1

So the Pirates catchers generated 2.6 WAR last season. I propose that the Pirates trade for Nick Hundley and sign Jose Molina. Here’s a look at what those two did last season.

Hundley	82	.288/.347/.477	3.3
Molina	55	.281/.342/.415	1.3

 Hundley and Molina combined to be worth 4.6 WAR last season. So already the Pirates have improved by 2 wins.  (Record now 74-88)

The Pirates do not have a starting first baseman going into 2012. Last season, Lyle Overbay began the year as their first baseman, but was replaced when Derek Lee was acquired at the deadline; Garrett Jones also played a large role at 1B. Here’s a look at their production in 2011.

Player	Innings	Slash Stats	WAR
Overbay	828	.227/.300/.349	-0.8
Jones	260	.243/.321/.433	0.9
Lee	238	.337/.398/.584	0.9

The Pirates first baseman generated 1 WAR last season.

The best way to improve on that would be go out and sign Price Fielder; however that’s unlikely, Carlos Pena however would be cheaper and would still represent an upgrade.

Pena

1258.1

.225/.357/.462

2.6

With Pena the Pirates would generate 1.6 additional wins. (Record now 75.6-86.4)

The Pirates have a solid middle infield tandem in Neil Walker (3.0 WAR), and Ronny Cedeno (1.4 WAR). Walker is a good player, he has a decent bat (.273/.334/.408 in 2011) and a below average glove (-3.2 UZR in 2011). Cedeno has no bat (career line of .249/.286/.353) but his glove at short (5.9 UZR in 2011) is why I want him in the lineup. I believe that both these players at least will be worth what they were last season.

Third base is a position that really hurt the Pirates last season. The Pirates used three players for a significant time at 3B last season.

Pedro Alvarez	549	.191/.272/.288	-0.8
Brandon Wood	377	.220/.277/.347	0.3
Josh Harrison	363	.272/.281/.374	0.9

The Pirates third basemen combined to be worth only 0.4 wins.  This were the Pirates should make a splash and go after the big name free agent. I feel they should make run at Aramis Ramirez.

Ramirez

1241.1

.306/.361/.510

3.6

 With Ramirez the Pirates would get an extra 3.2 wins. (Record now 78.8-83.2)

Much like third base right field was another area of concern for the Pirates.  The Pirates again had three players play significant time in right field in 2011.

Garret Jones	659	.243/.321/.433	0.9
Matt Diaz	276	.259/.303/.324	-0.1
Xavier Paul	273	.254/.293/.349	-0.1

Those three men were worth 0.7 wins last season. A player who would improve on that would be Michael Cuddyer

Cuddyer

639.1

.284/.346/.458

3.1

With the addition of Cuddyer the Pirates would gain another 2.4 wins. (Record 81.2-80.8 at the .500 mark)

The Pirates are set in the center field with Andrew McCutchen (5.7 WAR) and Jose Tabata (1.0 WAR). McCutchen is one of the best young center fielders in the game and his WAR reflects that. His WAR has increased every year he has been in the bigs so next season I will expect that to continue. He has average increase 1.1 WAR a season. Let’s assume he will do that (which really isn’t asking a lot as he is only 26). So that will increase the Pirates record to 82.3-79.7. Tabata only played in 91 games last season and he is only 23. So an increase in WAR is realistic to expect. Tabata had 2.1 WAR in 2010 so I feel that if he stays healthy and plays in something like 140 games he should get around 2.8 WAR. That will improve the Pirates record to 84.1-77.9.

By only making 4 changes I have improved the Pirates by 12.1 wins. Now to reach that 90 win plateau the pitchers need to improve by just 5.9 wins.  

I will begin with the bullpen

Pitcher	Innings	ERA	WAR
Tony Watson (L)	41	3.95	-0.4
Joe Beimel (L)	25.1	5.33	-0.7
Daniel McCutchen (R)	84.2	3.72	-0.3

Those three combined to be 1.1 win below a replacement level player last season. Even the Pirates get players who are simply replacement level then they will improve by 1 win. Here are three pitchers who are free agents and would represent an upgrade.

Todd Coffey (R)	59.2	3.62	0.5
George Sherril  (L)	36	3.00	0.5
Javier Lopez (L)	53	2.72	0.7

 These three pitchers combined for a 1.7 WAR. These pitchers because they are replacing players who combined to have -1.1 WAR, they give Pittsburgh another 2.8 wins. (Record 86.9-75.1)

The last area that needs improving is the starting rotation. Since we are at 86.9 wins we only need to improve the rotation by 3.1 WAR.

Here’s a look at the two pitchers that need to be replaced.

Ross Ohlendorf	38.2	4.82	-0.6
Kevin Correia	153.0	8.15	0.0

These two pitchers as you can see combined to have -0.6 WAR last season. Here are two pitchers who will provide similar innings but will be provide more WAR.

Dontrelle Willis	75.2	5.00	0.8
Bruce Chen	155.0	3.77	1.7

These two pitchers combined to be worth 2.5 wins last season.  These two pitchers will provide the Pirates with an additional 3.1 wins, exactly the amount that was needed.

Those 3.1 wins push the Pirates record to 90-70, which should be enough to make the playoffs in 2012. I made 10 changes to the Pirates roster. Yes that is a lot and the price would be high, but the extra revenue the Pirates made from being in contention would be enough to offset the cost of the players.

Comments are appreciated, let know how I’m doing and what I can improve on. Thanks. You can follow me on twitter @PaulBerthelot and you can like Ol Ball Game on twitter just search Ol Ball Game.